BE For Dogs – Center for Advanced Hindsight

B.E. For Dogs: Peak-End Rule

admin — Fri, 15 Jun 2018 18:30:47 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Peak-End Rule: How do we evaluate our experiences? Research suggests that our memory of our experiences is based on our memories of the last part of the experience (the end) and the most extreme part of the experience (the peak). This idea is referred to as the “Peak End Rule.”

Let’s consider the two dogs in the comic. At the end of the walk, the blue dog remarked that the walk was amazing. The red dog, on the other hand, is tired. Both dogs had walks with one low, one moderate and one high intensity section. So, what gives? Why do the dogs have different memories of the walk?

Think about the Peak-End Rule. Compare the experiences of the two dogs. When was the peak of their respective walks (HINT: the high intensity part). How did their respective walks end? The Blue dog ended the walk at lower intensity. Therefore his memory of the walk will be more pleasant.

The Peak-End Rule has been studied in numerous contexts, including exercise. A study published in 2017 by our colleagues Zachary Zenko, Panteleimon Ekkekakis, and Dan Ariely showed that adults who completed an exercise session where the intensity decreased over time felt more pleasant, had better memories of the session and predicted the next exercise session would be more enjoyable.

The post B.E. For Dogs: Peak-End Rule appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Hindsight Bias

admin — Wed, 02 May 2018 18:16:59 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Hindsight Bias: The hindsight bias refers to the tendency to view an event as predictable after it has already happened. It’s easy to say, “I knew it all along!” after we learn about a finding. The first experiment testing hindsight bias in 1975 asked people to make predictions about different current events, such as what would happen on President Nixon’s trip to Beijing and Moscow before the trip took place. Following the trip, people were asked to recall the probabilities they had assigned to different outcomes. Participants overestimated how likely they had thought the real events were, once they knew what had really happened.

One note of caution: hindsight bias might make us think that we’re better at predicting the future than we actually are. But you already knew that, right?

The post B.E. For Dogs: Hindsight Bias appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Planning Fallacy

admin — Wed, 04 Apr 2018 01:03:18 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Planning Fallacy: Have you ever made a “to-do” list for the day and then wondered why it didn’t all get done? If so, you’re not alone. We tend to be overly optimistic about how soon we’ll complete our own tasks — a tendency known as the planning fallacy.

Why is this? One reason is that when we think about how long something will take us, we don’t tend to take into account previous relevant experiences that would help us make better predictions.

Still, third-party observers tend to make much more conservative estimates about how long things will take other people. So, next time you’re planning for a deadline, or trying to make time to play in the mud by sundown, consider asking a friend to help you predict how much time to set aside to make it.

P.S. Your taxes are due on April 17! Start sooner than you think!

The post B.E. For Dogs: Planning Fallacy appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Halo Effect

admin — Fri, 16 Mar 2018 16:58:27 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Halo Effect: The halo effect refers to the tendency to use your first or overall impression of a person to evaluate specific traits that you haven’t actually observed. For example, if you meet someone and think, “That person was really nice,” you might assume that person is also really smart. A number of studies have found that attractiveness can produce the halo effect. In the comic above, the dog with the beautiful fur is erroneously thought to be well-behaved, simply because of their luxurious coat.

The halo effect can have far-reaching consequences, impacting hiring decisions and even political elections. For example, attractive political candidates are perceived as more competent – and they’re more likely to be elected than less attractive candidates.

The post B.E. For Dogs: Halo Effect appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Regret and Counterfactuals

admin — Tue, 27 Feb 2018 17:48:38 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Regret and Counterfactuals: Our happiness depends not just on where we are, but on where we imagine we could have been. In a clever study demonstrating this phenomenon, participants watched videos from the 1992 Olympics right after athletes won a medal. And, without knowing which medal the athletes had won, participants rated how happy they looked. Bronze winners turned out to look much happier than silver winners. Why?

In TV interviews, silver medalists focused on how close they were to receiving a gold medal. But bronze winners were happier; they compared their achievement to fourth place, or not having won a medal at all. Researchers call this tendency regret and counterfactual thinking, when we imagine alternatives to past events.

The post B.E. For Dogs: Regret and Counterfactuals appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Affective Forecasting

admin — Thu, 08 Feb 2018 20:05:37 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Affective Forecasting: We make predictions about how events will make us feel all the time – and many of these predictions guide our life decisions. (This dog, for example, imagines how a new puppy will make him feel — and that a puppy is the wrong decision.) Yet, many of our initial predictions are inaccurate, especially when it comes to predicting the intensity and duration of our feelings.

In one study, professors who were up for tenure were asked how they would feel if they didn’t get tenure. Everyone said they would be very unhappy. A few months after the tenure decisions, the faculty who didn’t get tenure were just as happy as those who did. One explanation for affective forecasting errors is that people focus too much on what will change and how much that change will matter in everyday life.

References
Wilson, T.D., Gilbert, D.T. (2003). Affective forecasting. In Zanna, M.P. (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 35, 345–411. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

Gilbert, D. T., Pinel, E. C., Wilson, T. D., Blumberg, S. J., & Wheatley, T. P. (1998). Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75(3), 617-638.

The post B.E. For Dogs: Affective Forecasting appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Reciprocity

admin — Mon, 22 Jan 2018 17:22:26 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Reciprocity: Reciprocity refers to the inclination to respond to a gift or positive action by providing something of potentially greater value in return. This is one reason why charities might send us gifts in the mail (and return address labels!) when they reach out for donations or why supermarkets sometimes offer free samples. A sense of indebtedness has been created. One study showed that wait-staff who left a small candy with the bill got more tips than wait-staff who did not leave a candy. So, if you want someone to do something for you, it might be a good idea to pre-empt your request with a favor or gift – perhaps a stick?

More B.E. For Dogs:

#1 Friction

#2 Relativity

#3 The What-The-Hell! Effect

#4 Decision Paralysis

#5 Herding

#6 Relativity Pt. 2

#7 Decoy Effect

#8 Overconfidence

#9 Sunk Cost

#10 Ostrich Effect

#11 Lack of Self-Control

#12 Goal Gradient

The post B.E. For Dogs: Reciprocity appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Goal Gradient

admin — Wed, 13 Dec 2017 20:55:33 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Goal Gradient: Have you ever been in a race? Do you find yourself giving a little extra push as the finish line approaches? If so, you’ve seen the goal gradient theory in action. Goal gradient theory suggests that people will work harder to achieve a goal as they get closer to reaching it. In the illustration above, the dog runs faster as the distance to the human shrinks.

This principle was illustrated in a study using coffee punch cards. When customers got a punch card specifying that they could get a free cup of coffee after buying 10 cups, they bought coffee more frequently as they got closer to the free cup. In a follow up study, researchers compared customers who were given a 12-punch coffee card with two “free” punches and customers who got a 10-punch coffee card with no free punches. The group with free punches bought coffee fastest (presumably because they felt they were closer to the free coffee), even though both groups technically had to buy 10 cups to get a free one.

Ran Kivetz, Oleg Urminsky, and Yuhuang Zheng (2006) The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer Retention. Journal of Marketing Research: February 2006, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 39-58.

The post B.E. For Dogs: Goal Gradient appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Lack of Self-Control

admin — Thu, 30 Nov 2017 20:50:58 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Lack of Self-Control: Why do people (and pups!) give in to temptation? Lack of self-control. It’s extremely difficult to pass up on something that’s tempting in the moment when the benefit of delayed gratification is not immediately apparent. The classic self-control study started in a nursery school in the 1960s. Walter Mischel and his researchers placed a marshmallow in front of each child. The child was told that they could eat the marshmallow right now or that they could wait 15 minutes and get two marshmallows. The researchers kept track of the children in the original study and found that those who were able to resist the marshmallow performed better in a number of areas including academic success. The children with high self-control were also less likely to have negative outcomes such as jail time or certain health conditions.

Mischel found that people are able to delay gratification when they change how they think about the object or action they want to resist. For example, during the marshmallow test, one child said that he imagined the marshmallow was a cloud instead of a tasty treat. This approach might not work as well for a dog, since some dogs would probably try to eat a cloud.

Mischel, W., & Baker, N. (1975). Cognitive appraisals and transformations in delay behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 31(2), 254-261.

The post B.E. For Dogs: Lack of Self-Control appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.

B.E. For Dogs: Ostrich Effect

admin — Thu, 09 Nov 2017 19:58:51 +0000

B.E. for Dogs is a bi-weekly comic series that will examine concepts in behavioral economics from the perspective of our canine companions. Look out for new comics every other week!

The series is created by Matt Trower, Catherine Berman, and Jamie Foehl.

Ostrich Effect: The ostrich effect is about avoiding bad news. When people worry they’ve fallen off track, sometimes they don’t want to know how they’re doing (even if feedback would be helpful for getting back on track). For example, a study by Jennifer A. Linde and colleagues in 2005 found that 20% of people who enrolled in weight-loss programs reported they didn’t weigh themselves prior to the program.

The ostrich problem has also been studied in financial contexts. A study in 2009 by Niklas Karlsson and colleagues looked at how often investors monitored their accounts in different market conditions. Researchers found that investors monitored their portfolios more frequently when the market was up and less frequently when the market was flat or failing.

More B.E. For Dogs:

#1 Friction

#2 Relativity

#3 The What-The-Hell! Effect

#4 Decision Paralysis

#5 Herding

#6 Relativity Pt. 2

#7 Decoy Effect

#8 Overconfidence

#9 Sunk Cost

The post B.E. For Dogs: Ostrich Effect appeared first on Center for Advanced Hindsight.